A season long project to track my Formula One predictions and accuracy. Each race week, I create 5-10 predictions. These could be related to drivers, media, weather, results, car performance, etc.. It's all free reign.

I do, however, strive for a couple of things when coming up with these. One, authenticity. I consume a lot of Formula one related media, and while my thoughts may be swayed by it, I will try to come up with creative predictions. Two, ambitious (or, at least, not 'obvious') predictions. No, I will not predict Lando Norris in the top five. For most of the season, unless something goes awry, things like this are a given. No cheap shots.

The Formula One Predictions

2025

The Predictions

The Results

A quick section on my reasoning and retrospective.

First of all, with how the Red Bull looked in Pre Season tests, I was not optimistic (resident Max Verstappen fan, here). I did not take into account two things... One, a wet race. Max is particularly adept in the rain. Two, Max Verstappen. My bad, really, because what the fuck was I even thinking?

In regards to a rookie overtaking Alonso, not a bad take on my part. I was there. I was so, so close. Unfortunately, on lap 34, he lost the car on the exit of turn 6. There is not a doubt in my mind that, given five more laps, Antonelli would have passed him. That one, to forestall my ego getting too small, was just bad luck.

Credit where credit is due; a great race from Lance Stroll, good points for Aston Martin. Excited to watch him bin the car for the next five races, in Stroll fashion.

Thank you, Liam Lawson and Co.. A desperate strategy call from Red Bull put Lawson on slicks in a downpour. On lap 47, he lost the rears around turn 2. I'm not particularly predisposed to being a Lawson fan, so... no skin off my back. Another much needed point!

God awful start. We die like men.

A crash, spin, stall, or false start.

At least.

By Formula A, I refer to Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, and Ferrari.

In My Defense

March 14-16, 2025

The Predictions

Race Qualifying, not Sprint Qualifying.

Think the power outage during Pre Season Testing and such.

I have not yet defined 'shock'.

In the Grand Prix.

Okay, let's talk sprint race. While I would consider a Hamilton win a 'shock', his podium company is not. Max and Oscar are expected front runners in any format. I thought it would be a bit of a stretch to give myself that point.

My red flag prediction was... not great. The Shanghai International Circuit is quite robust. This would have been a better predicition for one of the upcoming ancient tracks.

Sauber getting into Q3 was a stretch. With how close the times are, Sauber is least likely to get there, but that's what makes the predictions fun. Nonetheless, Hulkenburg qualifying P12 was very impressive. Their race pace... not so much.

After the post race disqualifications, Williams scored 7 points. This prediction, as well as my Haas prediction, I stand by. Bearman and Ocon's qualifying gaps aren't too big.

Speaking of which, a great weekend for Hass gives them 14 points (after DSQs) and throws them to P6 in the Constructors' Championship. A fantastic drive for Ocon this weekend. I'm happy to see Haas' improved pace, hopefully this shows that they wont be back of the pack all year like we thought after Melbourne.

Making bad predictions... like a winner.

March 21-23, 2025

The Predictions

Just for fun. I am NOT manifesting.

He needs it.

I will be waiting on Twitter, thanks.

April 4-6 , 2025

What the title says, mostly.

I don't think my George Russell prediction was far off, and my McLaren prediction was just pure chance.

I do believe my Alpine prediction was pretty mild; mild but... good? Listen, I've slept a total of five hours in the past fifty. Please refer back to the title. Pierre did great with whatever the hell that Alpine is right now. His performance is highlighted by Jack's. Unfortunately, some rookie mistakes from him—apologies, I get punny when I am not fully alive. Not even good puns. His crash in FP2 was unfortunate; a 50g crash that was completely preventable.

In better news, Ollie does have a good weekend. A point! And a pace advantage over his experienced teammate in the race.

Also, a boring race win is exactly what Max needs right now. some great points in the constructors.

Annnnd I fucking called that. Either I am an oracle or moms are just THAT predictable. A boring race and race predictions saved by the likes of the one and only Ms. Piastri. Cheers. Happy Birthday to Oscar and a happy triple header to all—if you make it, my sleep schedule is fuuuuucked.

Proof for you miserable fucks:

The Predictions

I will take anything above P14

AKA one extreme high and one extreme low.

April 11-13 , 2025

Out in Q1 and/or low Q2

I'm getting there... if we think optimistically. Stay with me.

A VSC in FP3. Don't even get me started. It was personal.

I feel the same way about my high winds prediction. Max was too busy complaining about the rest of the car and team combusting—valid. But this was a good one, man. I am stomping my foot in protest.

On a roll of "I should've been rights", I could not, in good conscience, give myself that Ferrari prediction. I am still far from confident, as seen in my Saudi Arabian Grand Prix Predictions.

No comment on my wins here, nothing too adventurous. Speaking of adventurous, the hards Red Bull? The fucking hards. Really? I was very verbal about my disappointment with Max's strategy this weekend—because my talking to a screen helps. I promise.

The Predictions

despite aforementioned strategy flub

April 18–20 , 2025

I have no faith

GAS x TSU is my big crash. Instagram (thanks, you fucks) told me Lando's crash in Q3 and Yuki's in FP2 don't count.

A quick note—it's hard to defend my driver, man. Big sighs when he stubborn-man-head doesn't race like a coherent human being. Still my driver, though. This is a toxic parasocial relationship.

Y'know what, I'm gonna call it for the rookies this weekend. Bad. Bad? Bad. Doohan in the back with, Bortoleto, Bearman, and Lawson nearby. Antonelli is just that five year old who shows up to the competition and wins and it sucks cause how the fuck is he even? Hadjar in P10 thanks to an overcut strategy. Okay, Lawson is on the line, here, but he's out of the points and his teammate is not. I am making an executive decision. Bad weekend for the rookies.

Thank you, Brian, we all say in unison. LEC P3. Halfway through the race I had a visceral realization of what being a Tifosi felt like. I am no longer making predictions like this; my heart can't take it.

Ferrari's strategy was... not optimal, but by Ferrari standards, they did alright. Red Bull's was successful. Thank you, Hannah. We can forget about last week.

In the best news this week, this is by far my best score. Is that because of some vague predictions and liberties on my part? Shhh. I kid you not, this gives me an 8% accuracy increase. And the only one I got wrong was bad strategy for Ferrari? How odd.

The Predictions

Plus a mystery third, of course

May 02-04, 2025

I am indomitable objective arbiter here

We will not speak of this.

The Predictions

Per. I will be making the same prediction in Monza you can't stop me.

May 16-18, 2025

I am not kidding he hasn't even tested the car

Honestly, I think this is a valid pred..

Big tyre troubles

This is the first time Pirelli is bringing C6 tyres. The effort is to encourage a two stop race. I do not trust a Pirelli tyre as far as I could throw one... I am 5'4", I could not throw one.

Predictions were... okay. Honestly, I don't care; Max killed this. That is all.

Bite Me

The Predictions

May 23-28, 2025